WASHINGTON: It's a subject Americans can't stop discussing and one Pakistan hates talking about. The terrorist attack on the Pakistani military facility in Karachi has once again focused world (and Washington's) attention on the security of the country's fast-growing nuclear arsenal.
The Obama administration on Monday did not publicly go beyond "strongly" condemning the attack on Pakistan Naval Station (PNS) Mehran and appreciating the "service and sacrifices of their brave Armed Forces," but the incident has re-ignited the simmering debate about vulnerability of its nuclear weapons. US analysts noted that Mehran is only 15 miles away from the Masroor Air Base , where Pakistan is believed have a large depot for nuclear weapons that can be delivered from the air.
While Pakistan insists that its "crown jewels" are under foolproof security, at the heart of the debate is worry that they are vulnerable to internal pilferage or attack by a "jihadized" military, judging by multiple attacks on military facilities by terrorists who seemingly have the inside track on security, including in the Mehran strike. A recent Wikileaks cable citing Pakistani military officials admitting sabotage of F-16s by "Islamists amongst the enlisted ranks" has added to the concern.
Pakistani militant attacks over the last five years include strikes against three nuclear facilities, in Wah, Sargodha, and Kamra, according to Prof Shaun Gregory, a security specialist at Bradford University. But each time, the Pakistan military establishment, which has itself suffered attacks at its General Headquarters and training and recruitment centers, insists that there was no danger to its nuclear assets.
But Gregory says the attacks illustrate "a clear set of weaknesses and vulnerabilities" in Pakistan's nuclear security regime, a danger brought home by the ease with which militants are now penetrating military installations. Concern is growing in the west about the internal dynamics in a military that was once thought to be "westernized and professional."
Washington is leery of expressing its views openly, but New Delhi , which has more proximate reasons to be troubled by a nuclear heist, isn't holding back. "We are concerned with the safety of Pakistan's nuclear installations," senior officials traveling with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Africa were quoted as saying on Monday. "The real risk is internal - who guards the guardians."
The US has forked out over $ 100 million to improve Pakistan's nuclear security but Washington now admits it has no idea how the money was spent. There is consternation in Washington about the speed with which Pakistan is ramping up its nuclear arsenal with some analysts predicting that it could soon have the world's fourth largest nuclear arsenal, behind US, Russia , and China , and ahead of France and UK.
Like Singh, President Obama is also currently out of the country on a six-day, four-country tour of Europe . But Pakistan is never far from his mind; he has held at least half-a-dozen White House Situation Room meetings with key principals where the sole topic of discussion has been the deteriorating situation in Pakistan.
Washington is thick with speculation about American contingency plans in the event of a nuclear heist in Pakistan, notwithstanding assurances (most notably by Senator John Kerry) that the US has no designs on Pakistani nukes. But every U.S statement is dissected in Pakistan for hidden meanings amid fears that Washington is planning to neutralize its nuclear arsenal.
On Monday, in the aftermath of the naval base attack, the Obama administration merely said it is "committed to working with Pakistan in our joint effort to combat violent extremism and bring to justice those behind this attack." The pledge came after Wikileaks cables revealed that US special forces have been embedded with Pakistani troops in joint operations since September 2009.
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