Pakistan can enter ME energy market

Islamabad

Stressing that Pakistani nuclear reactors are safe in the wake of Tsunami-like disasters, South Asian Institute of Strategic Studies Director-General Maria Sultan has said that after Indo-US deal, Pakistan can enter Middle East energy market by improving its know-how and designing capability in reactor designing.

Ms Maria was speaking at Intellectual Discourse on Pakistan s nuclear programme and new Nuclear order organised by the National Press Club here on Saturday. NPC General-Secretary Asim Rana chaired the session while journalist Musharraf Zahoor conducted the proceedings.

Dr Maria said, We have modified our designs, but we do not have indigenous designing capability. She reiterated that Pakistan can develop indigenous designs with the help of China, Korea, Italy or Norway to enter the Middle East energy market.

Ms Maria said that Pakistan has a significant role to play in new nuclear order to its weapons as well as the peaceful programme. Only 9 countries, which include P-5 and China, Italy, Japan and Norway, are able to provide technology and trained manpower. She said that Pakistan can cater to Middle East market and Indo-US deal has opened the gate. If India can join NPT on the basis of the deal, you also have a base to use it with a new framework for analysis.

She said that Pakistan made advances in indigenisation like non-destructive testing after international sanctions. She said that Pakistan can play a role hence share in international nuclear energy market. US created a space for New Delhi under Indo-US deal consented by IAEA and NSG, but Pakistan is not being extended the same concessions. The deal also enables India to develop a strategic nuclear fuel reserve, which can anytime be diverted to weapons programme. She said that New Delhi also had an option to declare Indo-US deal as invalid anytime. She said that the deal pronounced a structural decay of NPT.

She said that under UN Security Council Resolution 1540 under Chapter 7 in 2004, Pakistan also promulgated laws encompassing exports and controls.

She said that there is a big crisis as US had a deal with India and at the same time, the old non-proliferation regime is still in vogue.

The SASSI chief said that due to depletion of oil reserves and nuclear option involving no CO2 emissions, the importance of nuclear energy is increasing. She said that Mid East has $3 trillion market and only NPT member countries can supply technology.

Earlier, she said that Pakistan s nuclear programme started as a peaceful programme in the 1950s when US President Eisenhower was enunciating his Atom for Peace programme in UN General Assembly under which US provided nuclear reactors to 87 countries for electric power generation. She said that non-proliferation regime is based on NPT and 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group provides nuclear technology to other countries under domestic laws of the supplying nations and under NPT.

She said that nuclear policy of Pakistan was set by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Minister of Energy in 1957. In 1972, he decided to use it for military purposes in a scientists meeting held in Multan. She said that there was a fear at that time that India was working on military nuclear programme.

Maria Sultan said, 1976 was a watershed for our nuclear programme as Pakistan saw discrimination when US mounted pressure on France to cancel the deal for supply of nuclear reprocessing plant to Pakistan, which was finally cancelled during the regime of General Zia.

She said that after 2001, there was again pressure when the reports surfaced that Dr. AQ Khan was involved in illicit nuclear export.

She said that Pakistan s nuclear policy had always been a by-product of its national security policy. The programme included having a nuclear deterrent capability.

She said that pursuit clause was added to monitor all nuclear activities while using safeguarded material or equipment by non-NPT countries. She said, IAEA couldn t inspect all our facilities, as Islamabad is not a signatory to NPT like India and Israel. She said, We can import anything from any country like

China under a bilateral agreement.

She said that deterrence is a dynamic concept and one has to update its estimates, capacity and arsenal. Our deterrence was non-deployment, but there had to be recalculation after India s Cold-Start doctrine, she added.

She said that before 2000 global nuclear situation saw world divided into haves and have-nots after which US started thinking that a new understanding is required. There was a shift and US opted for initiatives, she said, as Americans believed it is a coalition of the willing. They also thought to use UN to seek modifications in domestic laws of countries.

She said that Fukushima had problems due to Tsunami and not due to earthquake, but emergency steps confined the situation going out of hands. Exposure to radioactivity was due to people visiting the site in search of the dead bodies of their near and dear ones. Dust inhalation can also lead to lung cancer, but luckily the people were evacuated, she added.

She said that KANUPP is far safe than Fukushima reactors. She said that seismic resistance capacity was doubled by Pakistan and it has better pumping facility. She said that CHASHNUPP site is away from seismic zone and distance from river is again far away and there is no chance of Tsunami at Chashma.

About design-based threats, she said that Japanese did not pay attention to secondary grid station to ensure constant electric supply to water pumping system to cool down the reactors.

She said that safety standards in the word should be reviewed in the wake of disasters, floods and other calamities. She said that Pakistan can play role in international energy market and can also use it as a deterrence equaliser.

In the question hour, Maria said that Japan overcame the disaster with international help. Answering a question, she said that a Pakistani BBC reporter was not allowed to visit Kundian after receiving news that fish were found mysteriously dead may be because he was working for foreign media. She said that US and western countries were also commissioning studies on security-related issues.

In reply to a question about probable US attack on Pakistan s nuclear facilities and weapons, she said, the reaction of people on US raid will act as deterrence for US. She said, Americans can attack us but we can also attack US, if we want to, but I wonder do we have capability to respond back. Our facilities are no fly zones and they have to use massive attack knowing that then our air and other forces will move into action. Asam Rana thanked the audience in the end.