The Pakistan Army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas has termed reports published in the New York Times criticising Pakistan Army and ISI as “a direct attack on our security organisation and intelligence agencies.” This about-face by the US should have been expected by Pakistan especially by those who were closely cooperating with them in strategic planning and dialogue. The US had been preparing the ground since long and the signs were there for everyone to see. Now that the US President has given a plan to get out of the Afghan quagmire, the process to terminate the alliance has to be set in motion. Pakistan has experienced this desertion process before also; it should not be any surprise this time.
The USA has given itself till the end of year 2014 for a total withdrawal from Afghanistan; this gives them time to take out the remaining high profile Al-Qaeda targets either by US special operations or by pressurising Pakistan to do so. The NYT propaganda blitz followed by withholding aid funds and “hit Zawahiri living in FATA” demand indicate that US wants Pakistan to launch the operation clean-up for the US troops so that they can withdraw with no or minimum casualties. America embarked upon a costly military adventure in Afghanistan to eliminate and defeat Al-Qaeda. After “killing” Osama they claim that this organisation is defeated and only a handful of its top operatives are left who have to be eliminated so that a complete victory is claimed to satisfy the US tax-payer. Leon Panetta, the new US Defence Secretary, has identified “10 to 20 key Al-Qaeda targets” that are located in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and North Africa. He places Al-Zawahiri in FATA. A demand to take him out has already been placed on Pakistan Army without sharing the intelligence.
Locating such targets in a vast area is not an easy task. It needs an elaborate spy network on ground. The US had deployed such a network in Pakistan by-passing the ISI, which was compromised after Raymond Davis’ arrest. Pakistan had then asked the US to withdraw their operatives. The US had also deployed military training teams at various installations. After the attack on Mehran naval base such teams fell under suspicion of dubious activities and were told to leave. This has left the US military without proverbial eyes and ears on ground which is essential for any ‘get Al-Qaeda operations.’ The planned stepped-up drone attacks or possible physical special operations need precise and accurate intelligence; with no spies and agents on ground that will not be available. Despite so-called close cooperation information provided by ISI is considered suspect and doubtful. Panetta, the former boss of CIA, still talks of the “suspicion” as to who sheltered Osama, despite moving to the Pentagon he remains a spy-master in thought and actions.
The present tough stance is an arm-twisting tactic to force Pakistan to comply with US demands so that the final phase of the battle against Al-Qaeda is launched. These demands are now becoming public. Top demands placed by the Pentagon on Pakistan for resumption of aid call for “increase visas for US personnel” and “reinstate the training mission.” Dispassionately speaking, it calls for re-establishment of US spy network in Pakistan. Previously Pakistan had issued visa indiscriminately to the US personnel and Blackwater operatives which turned Pakistan into a playground of the US spies. The Pakistan establishment should have assessed that to locate a handful of top militant leaders hiding in FATA did not need such a large spy force on ground then, and it is not needed now. Deployment of a large spy network has other hidden designs. It is heartening to know that Pakistan has reacted rightly to the American decision to cut the aid and as warned by Defence Minister Ahmed Mukkhtar threatened to pull out the troops from the Pak-Afghan border.
The on-going war on terror has two facets to it. One that the US led NATO is fighting in Afghanistan and second which is being conducted by Pakistan Army within the geographical boundary of Pakistan. The USA is claiming that they have defeated the Taliban militants in Afghanistan; they are exploring a negotiated settlement with ‘friendly Taliban’ and have announced a draw-down and eventual withdrawal plan. This all indicates that the task that the US invasion of Afghanistan envisaged is complete; the reports that Panetta is going to discuss with President Karzai transition of some NATO-held areas to Afghan control confirms the US confidence. It means that the US task in Afghanistan is over; all that is left to accomplish is smooth transition of security responsibility to the Afghan authority for which the timetable set till year end 2014 is sufficient. After that all that the Afghan government will need may consist of some trainers and aid in the shape of weapons and equipment.
Pakistan Army is quite capable of handling the war on terror within Pakistan’s territorial limits and indeed without US aid largesse. It has successfully conducted it in Swat and South Waziristan and has established the peace there from where the political process can begin and it has. Pakistan Army and the ISI working in close cooperation have the capability to search, locate and destroy Al-Qaeda targets that are working against the interests of Pakistan. In this effort, Pakistan Army has the ability to go alone. Pakistan does not need and should not allow a wider US spy net in Pakistan, the existing CIA station chief with his operatives working with the ISI will suffice for Pak Army to conduct this local war on terror.
How the events will unfold only time will tell. One thing is certain; our alliance with the US has come full circle. The stoppage of aid is an indicator that the separation is approaching near. A journalist counts this stoppage to be the seventh in 56 years of our mutual on-again- off-again friendship. In all previous episodes, aid stoppage turned into snapping of friendship. This time. too, the events will follow the same pattern. Pakistan should be prepared politically, diplomatically and economically to face the conditions that will come its way once the ties snap.
Pakistan’s Diplomatic Corps, its strategic thinkers and intelligentsia, need to consider the challenge unleashed against the Muslim world by the Western Civilization. Panetta identifies Al-Qaeda locations in Yemen, Somalia, North Africa and Pakistan. These are the cardinal points which surround the entire Middle East and Al-Maghreb. Al-Qaeda being an ideological movement on the hit list of the US-led West gives it the reason to meddle in the affairs of the Muslim countries. The events unfolding in Sudan and the Middle East make it abundantly clear. The modern Western Civilization has embarked upon an ambitious plan to “dismember the Muslim World” into smaller and manageable political units; Abid Mustafa, a journalist expert in Middle Eastern affairs, has rightly recognised this threat, with which Pakistan has been afforded a God-given opportunity to break away from this western clash with Muslim Civilization and launch a vigorous awakening campaign to educate the Muslim masses about the dangers facing them. Pakistan must take the ideological lead in this direction.
n The writer is a retired Brigadier.
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