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Thursday 7 July 2011

Afghanistan's Eastern Triangle new home to terror groups


The mountains of Kunar province are as beautiful as they are deadly. High alpine valleys, sweeping views in every direction. And al Qaeda units hiding beyond the ridges that U.S. military power is unable to control.
On patrol with U.S. forces in this remote eastern corner of Afghanistan, you get a sense of the enormous challenge of pacifying this wild, uncharted territory. The only way to take the high ground is by air – a perilous operation at 9,000 feet.
The ground is vitally important though. Kunar and neighboring Nurestan province are places so rugged and untameable that NATO has entirely pulled out of the latter, and has withdrawn from the Pech valley – a key patch of terrain where Americans fought for years, unsure whether they were just facing locals angry at being invaded, or hardcore militants.
Yet this partial withdrawal – criticized by some as relinquishing ground that America must hold to secure Afghanistan's porous but vital eastern border – has enabled some of the main militants that U.S. forces came to Afghanistan to defeat, to re-emerge.
For years, NATO have fed the narrative that most of al Qaeda have left Afghanistan and are now concentrated in Pakistan's tribal areas. It was rare to hear references to AQ from military officials, their focus being on how the insurgency was political in nature and hence negotiable with.
But now U.S. officials have told CNN that al-Qaeda militants have been found in Watuhpur, a remote alpine valley close to Kunar's Pech. American forces were concerned enough about this remote area becoming a safe haven for militants that they launched a large clearing operation in late June, dropping hundreds of troops into forests 9000 feet up. The resistance they met was fierce, one describing a level of sophistication not often seen from local fighters, and reminiscent of Arab, al Qaeda linked fighters. The operation was also sparked by consistent yet unconfirmed reports of al Qaeda using the hills to train and plan its operations in the area.
U.S. forces, led by 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, at first thought it would be a 48-hour operation. But the resistance they found was intense – much fiercer than expected. Three Americans died and dozens were injured – the Afghan army also taking serious casualties. Eventually, over five days later, they had covered enough ground to stop the militants, killing 120 of them in the process. Several of these were Arabs with links to al Qaeda, according to U.S. and Afghan officials familiar with the operation.
This is significant for two reasons. First, it shows that al-Qaeda militants are now finding safe havens again in Afghanistan, rather than feeling more comfortable across the border in Pakistan's tribal areas.
Second, it presents a dilemma for American commanders in the area. Their mantra over past months, in these remote hills that seem impossible to police, is that perhaps a delicate and well-timed withdrawal – leaving Afghans to patrol, is more sensible use of resources in an area that would seem unconquerable. But if the very terrorist group they came to Afghanistan to tackle is returning to these areas, then it is hard to justify lessening your presence there.
The operation was meant to disrupt the safe havens permanently. Yet when CNN joined an American and Afghan patrol back into the valley, the ground seemed to remain pretty hostile. Militants shot at U.S. helicopters, to the surprise of 2nd Lieutenant Trey Vanwyhe. "It's uncharacteristic of the Taliban I know from around here. They're getting pretty gutsy," he said.
And the joint patrols are careful where they venture. Pointing down the valley towards the ridges the troops call the 69 parallel, 2nd Lt Trey Vanwyhe said: "Right past there, usually our patrols don't push much up past that because if you push up past that you're going to take enemy contact, it's pretty certain." The valley is far from humbled by the scale of the American operation launched against it.
The operations in Kunar are a change of focus for U.S. forces, which had closed several forward operating bases in the area as they deployed in greater numbers to the Taliban's heartland in southern Afghanistan. The withdrawal from the Pech Valley began earlier this year, with U.S. commanders saying that the area was soaking up resources better used in priority areas like Kandahar and Helmand.
Some local officials said Afghan security forces would not be able to retain control of the area; others suggested the exit of U.S. forces would actually reduce the influence of militant groups.
How to tackle insurgents in Kunar and neighboring Nuristan goes to the heart of the debate over the counter-insurgency strategy championed by General David Petraeus and more traditional counter-terrorism. The former is a more ambitious program to win hearts and minds – bringing security to contested areas and then building government services and economic development. The latter is a more military-oriented approach designed to inject forces where a terrorist threat is identified. For now, the approach in Kunar appears to have been tilted toward counter-terrorism.
Last month, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace described Afghanistan's Eastern Triangle – of which Kunar is part – as important because of its "location between the capital and the Pakistani insurgent sanctuaries." A report by Gilles Dorronsoro said "the recent reorganization of U.S. forces in Kunar and Nuristan has led to an insurgent advance."
"The fact is, the force was too dispersed, and local opposition - the population was allied with the insurgents - led the American command to evacuate the most isolated valleys ... as well as certain border outposts," Dorronsoro wrote.
The province of Kunar is at the center of a complex regional dynamic. Groups like the Haqqani Network, the Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda are using the lawless tribal agencies of Pakistan as a conduit for reaching Afghanistan.
Some military analysts say that if they can occupy the valleys and hillsides of Kunar and neighboring provinces with relative impunity, the Taliban, al Qaeda and their allies will be able to use this impenetrable territory as a safe haven.
Across the nearby border, Pakistani troops have launched an offensive against their own Number 1 enemy, the Pakistan Taliban. Pakistani officials claim the Taliban use Kunar as a safe haven from which to launch mass attacks against Frontier Corps soldiers.
In a recent editorial, the Pakistani newspaper Dawn complained: "While Pakistan continues to be accused of providing safe havens to militants launching strikes in Afghanistan, the movement is increasingly taking place in both directions. Coalition and Afghan security forces are failing to capture those fleeing operations in Pakistan or to prevent them from returning across the border."
In the past few weeks, Pakistani forces have taken to shelling their adversaries along the poorly-defined border, with Afghan officials claiming that the barrage has killed dozens of Afghan civilians.
On Tuesday, President Hamid Karzai said Afghanistan would not retaliate. "Afghanistan never wants to harm civilians in Pakistan," Karzai told a news conference in Kabul after meeting British Prime Minister David Cameron.
"Afghanistan is seriously engaged in talks with Pakistan to solve this issue," he said.
But at the same time, there was a protest against the shelling in Kunar's provincial capital of Asadabad.
In a statement Monday, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry said it was "imperative that efforts be redoubled by both sides to attain the objectives of shared peace and security and to enhance cooperation."
But even if Pakistan and Afghanistan "enhance co-operation," only a substantial allied presence in eastern Afghanistan is likely to subdue the Taliban, al Qaeda and other militant groups active here. Dorronso wrote in June that "the coalition seems indifferent to the situation... The most aggressive insurgent players and transnational jihadist groups are increasingly operating there with impunity."
On U.S. Independence Day, outgoing Afghan commander General David Petraeus said more special forces, intelligence, surveillance and air power will be concentrated in areas along Afghanistan's eastern border with Pakistan later this year, as well as a small number of extra coalition forces. It will mark the latest initiative to pacify what is becoming the most dangerous part of Afghanistan.

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